Morning Belz, Jan. 11

Five tiers of support for Trump.

I’m going to set aside the question of the president’s culpability in the attack on the capitol last week, and try to sift through what I know about Trump supporters to categorize them in a way that distinguishes between the guys with zip-ties vaulting over railings in House chambers and most of the people I’ve spoken to who supported or voted for Donald Trump.

I’ve come up with five tiers. There are racists in each group, especially the first two, but I don’t think racism is the defining characteristic of any one tier. I’ll list the tiers starting with the most extreme, working my way out to the least extreme. A few questions for you:

- do you think these tiers make sense?
- would you add any tiers?
- would you clarify or correct any of my tiers?

Here goes.

Tier 1 — Followers of Q. These people think Trump is the man standing in the gap between  the good people of Earth and a global cabal of Satan-worshipping cannibalistic pedophiles. For them, almost any means would justify the end of Trump’s continued presidency.

Tier 2 — These people think the Deep State and American politicians are cancerous, irredeemable scum and Trump is the only solution. They don't go in for the whole Satanic pedophilia ring construction, but they do believe a spiritual battle is underway, they see a liberal-left new order trying to take control of the country with the help of corrupt and aggressive media co-conspirators, and they are enraged.

So, gorged on the sickly-sweet fruit of sweeping, conspiracy-laden narrative, Tiers 1 and 2 are the types of people who would rush the U.S. Capitol, or who would quietly applaud from afar. I suspect these are relatively small groups of people, and the fact they made it into the capitol on Wednesday is evidence not of broad-based energy for armed revolution in our country, but rather of an incompetent and in some ways complicit response by Capitol Police.

Tier 3 — Traditionalists. They see Trump as a good president who mostly served Conservative interests, and, like Tiers 1 and 2, they believe the election was stolen. They’re also horrified by the Left, disappointed in Washington and the direction of the country, and angry over what they consider cancel culture. But they don’t think American politics are irredeemable and they prefer stability over chaos. These folks are generally appalled by the mob rush on the capitol, though they don’t agree that it was Trump’s fault. 

Tier 4 — Conservative Nose-holders. They don't like Trump much at all but they see politics as pragmatic and he has delivered for them and their constituents, specifically on abortion and the Supreme Court. They’re profoundly alienated from the Left, angry over the way the media has treated Trump, and perhaps worried about election integrity, but they’re not ready to claim it was stolen. In some ways they’re relieved that Trump was defeated in November.

Tier 5 — Independents. They like Trump quite a bit because he's shaken things up, speaks his mind, and fights for what he thinks the country needs. But they're not all that conservative and they don't think the election was stolen. They're ready to move on.

I think Tiers 3 through 5 make up the lion’s share of Trump’s support, with Tier 3 the largest of them all. I think this means that, if the law enforcement response is robust, there should be no more incursions into federal buildings by crazy and dangerous people, and the transition to a Biden presidency shouldn’t be too bumpy.

Of course, I could be wrong! But I hope that’s somewhat encouraging to you. It is to me. Interested in your feedback, because I’m toying with the idea of making a video about this.

—
Conservative radio orders hosts to temper election fraud rhetoric — WaPo
Black police describe fighting off “racist-ass terrorists” — Buzzfeed
Niall Ferguson places this into historical context — Bloomberg
The 1861 Capitol takeover that wasn’t — NYT Opinion
Explanation for why they suspended Trump’s account — Twitter
Parler is gone for now — The Verge
A long list of lonely/sad messages from Q followers — G-Drive
It’s complicated. Southern Baptists and critical race theory — RNS
Fun poem by my cousin: Wise Sayings — Aaron Belz

Quote
"Do not let us begin by exaggerating the novelty of our situation. Believe me, dear sir or madam, you and all whom you love were already sentenced to death before the atomic bomb was invented: and quite a high percentage of us were going to die in unpleasant ways. We had, indeed, one very great advantage over our ancestors — anesthetics; but we have that still. It is perfectly ridiculous to go about whimpering and drawing long faces because the scientists have added one more chance of painful and premature death to a world which already bristled with such chances and in which death itself was not a chance at all, but a certainty. This is the first point to be made: and the first action to be taken is to pull ourselves together. If we are all going to be destroyed by an atomic bomb, let that bomb when it comes find us doing sensible and human things — praying, working, teaching, reading, listening to music, bathing the children, playing tennis, chatting to our friends over a pint and a game of darts—not huddled together like frightened sheep and thinking about bombs. They may break our bodies (a microbe can do that) but they need not dominate our minds." — C.S. Lewis, “On Living in an Atomic Age,” 1948

About: I send this email most mornings to force myself to stay informed and in touch. It’s typically ~8 links, a quote, and an update on what I’m working on. Write me back! And please share the email. If I added you and you don’t like it, please click unsubscribe below. I was a newspaper reporter for 14 years at the Cedar Rapids Gazette, Des Moines Register and Minneapolis Star Tribune. I gave the basic story of why my family left Minneapolis here. You can find my new venture, Scuffed News, on YouTube (please subscribe!), Twitter and Instagram, and you can support the project with your money, in exchange for exclusive video and early access to some of the video, on Patreon.